Apple's Growth Rocket Has Hit A Wall. What Will Get It Started Again?

Apple’s stunning growth over the past decade has been one of the biggest stories in all of tech. Even as the company released new product after new product, and grew larger and larger, its growth rate continued to accelerate, far surpassing its competitors. For the past ten years, Apple has posted year-over-year revenue growth every quarter, almost always more than 25% and frequently more than 50%. In that span, it’s gone from a company with less than $2 billion in quarterly sales to one with (once) more than $50 billion. For two quarters in a row in 2011, as the iPad and iPhone both picked up steam, Apple posted growth rates above 80% ??each quarter representing more than $10 billion in new sales from the year prior. That’s just crazy for a company that big. But now, that unbelievable growth rocket has come back to earth. Apple’s most recent quarter, reported today, showed just 1% growth over last year. And it’s not a fluke: Growth has sloped down for more than a year. After a great winter in 2011-2012, when Apple’s sales grew 73%, then 59%, it’s been 23%, 27%, 18%, 11%, and now 1%. For its next quarter, Apple expects growth ranging from 3% to a 5% year-over-year decline. What happened? Some of it’s just funny timing: A product launch early one year then late the next. Inventory adjustments as products mature and markets settle ? this played a role in this past quarter’s weakish iPad sales, for example. This year, in particular, Apple has been quiet on the new-gadget front, as design boss Jony Ive rehauls its iOS operating system, presumably for new iPhones, iPods, and iPads in time for Christmas. This is where arbitrary quarterly marking periods can sometimes cloud the lens. But there’s also been a bigger-picture trend that Apple can’t just replicate: The vast shift towards smartphones and tablets ? the “post-PC” revolution. Apple has captured this movement brilliantly, dominating the industry’s sales and profits despite selling relatively fewer, mostly high-end devices. And it may continue to do so. But that first-time adoption cycle isn’t going to happen again. At least not in the markets where Apple is strongest ? and where carrier subsidies allow for such high profit margins ? like the United States. So what can Apple do next, assuming it wants to continue to grow? (A safe assumption.) One obvious answer is

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